BEIJING – China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) released its 2012 Automobile Market Analysis and Prediction Report on July 26. The market is estimated to grow 8 percent to 20 million units if macro economy turns positive, said the report.
Sales of commercial vehicles, as negatively affected by the overall economic slowing down, will drop 3 percent to 3.91 million units this year. Bus sector, as the only bright spot in the first half, is expected to grow 14 percent to 55,000 units in sales this year, while truck sales will keep a negative growth, according to the association.
The association estimated a growth of 11.1 percent in passenger vehicle sales to 16.09 million units. Sedan, SUV, MPV and microvan sales will improve 10.5, 30, 13, and 1 percent to 11.18 million, 2.07 million, 560,000 and 2.28 million units respectively, said CAAM.
CAAM also believes a 15 percent growth in automobile import to 1.2 million and a 24 percent growth in export to 1.05 million in 2012.
This prediction, according to Shi Jianhua, vice secretary-general of CAAM, has taken fully consideration of the macro-economic environment, the rising numbers of rural consumers, stimulus or restrictive policies on automobile purchase, and impact of resources, transportation and the environment. “If the macro economy can maintain its current momentum, this year’s auto sales will rise 5 percent given no further mass auto purchase restrictions are released,” he added.