The value of China’s heavy-duty trucks will increase 2-3 times in the next 10 years even though volume may be lower, predicted Edmund Chew, research director of Truck Industry Research, a consultancy dedicated to the research of global truck industry.
“New truck demand will shift from low-end to high-end in the next 10 years and high-end vehicles will become mainstream vehicles once State-V and State-VI emissions standards are implemented,” said Chew in his speech titled Regulatory Distortions and Structural Issues Shaping Truck Industry Transformation “Transport companies will purchase and operate better trucks in the future.”
Chew believes that the industry faces an overcapacity situation which will last well until 2020. The situation will be improved once State-V emissions standards are implemented. He predicted that three factors will affect China’s future heavy-duty truck market and make it more volatile: structural and demand changes, stricter regulations and competitive models.
Chew said it is difficult to predict who will be the winners once these changes take place but those that do win will be the ones that are more profitable and gain more market share. He does not think that the development of high-speed railway transport will affect heavy-duty truck sales in the short term because growth will be slow.