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Lei Xing: China PV end-user sales to surpass 30 million by 2024

China’s passenger vehicle (cars, SUVs and MPVs) end-user sales are expected to surpass 30 million units by 2024, predicted Lei Xing, chairman of CBU Analytics and chief editor of CBU/CAR.

“The average annual growth rate of passenger vehicle end-user sales over the next decade will be about 4 percent,” said Xing.

Last year, the country registered about 17.07 million passenger vehicles, up 13.3 percent. But the bulk of the growth was contributed by SUVs, according to Xing citing CBU Analytics data. “End-user sales of SUVs jumped 34 percent to 4.48 million units. But the net increase of over 1.13 million SUVs contributed to 57 percent of the net increase in overall passenger vehicles,” said Xing.

But within the SUV segment, the fastest growing sub-segment was the small SUVs – the likes of Buick Encore, Ford EcoSport, Chang’an CS35 and Refine S3. End-user sales of this sub-segment grew 89 percent, contributing 47 percent of the net increase in SUV end-user sales.

“Chinese brands benefited from this sub-segment significantly,” said Xing. “Within this segment, Chinese brand end-user sales grew 91 percent and contributed nearly half of the net increase in volume as the number of models increased from 24 to 35.”

In the gushing new energy vehicle segment, end-user sales more than quadrupled, increasing from nearly 10,000 units in 2013 to about 46,000 units in 2014. The BYD Qin dominated the plug-in hybrid sub-segment, accounting for 87 percent (11,351 units) of the 13,000 units registered. The top 5 leading NEV brands in terms of end-user sales were BYD, Geely’s Kandi, Zotye, Beijing and surprisingly Tesla, accounting for more than 80 percent of NEV end-user sales. The four cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou and Shenzhen combined accounted for 60 percent of the NEVs registered.

Xing believes end-user sales increase of passenger vehicles this year will reach about 9 percent and further forecasts that auto sales will see negative growth in the near future. One of the factors that will contribute to this negative growth, according to Xing, is the rising popularity of vehicle sharing.

“Many consumers, especially younger ones, are considering whether they need to own a car at all and this trend will affect the future growth of the market,” said Xing. “The market will see much more fluctuated growth in the future and positive growth is unsustainable.” 

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