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Lei Xing: NEV supply and demand unbalanced

Even though China’s new energy vehicle market has soared over the last few years, supply and demand remains unbalanced, according to Lei Xing, chief editor of CBU/CAR.

“Because of the subsidy phase-out scheme already announced by the government, sales are likely to skyrocket in the last one or two months of the year in the next few years, as was the case in 2014 and 2015,” said Xing.

In fact, according to data from CBU Analytics, end user sales of passenger new energy vehicles in December in 2014 and 2015 accounted for 52 and 44 percent of the annual tallies in those two years, respectively. The top 10 cities in passenger NEV end user sales in 2015 accounted for 70 percent of the national end user sales and six of the top 10 (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Guangzhou and Shenzhen) had vehicle purchase or use restrictions. On a brand basis, the top five brands of BYD, Zotye, Kandi, BAIC and Roewe accounted for three-quarters of national passenger NEV end user sales. Shanghai alone accounted for 60 percent of the national end user sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles thanks to favorable local policies for the BYD Qin and Roewe e550 PHEVs.

A comparison of PHEV and BEV end user sales in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen reveals that due to local policies, Beijing favors more BEVs, Shanghai PHEVs while Shenzhen is more balanced.

From a point of charging infrastructure, Xing believes that charging stations and pillars must be built to effectively satisfy demand rather than building them just for the sake of solving the “chicken and egg” problem.

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