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China to produce 40 million vehicles in 2030, NEVs to account for half, says CATARC official

CHANGZHOU, Jiangsu – China will produce about 38-40 million vehicles in 2030 and about 40-50 percent of those will be new energy vehicles, according to Wu Zhixin, deputy director of Tianjin-based China Automotive Technology and Research Center  (CATARC).

Wu made the predictions while speaking at the 5th International Forum on Electric Vehicle and Key Components Testing & Evaluation organized by CATARC here on May 16.

“NEV output and sales are expected to reach about 2 million units in 2020 with a parc of 5 million units,” said Wu. “By 2025, they will account for about 15-20 percent of total vehicle output and sales and reach 40-50 percent by 2030.”

Despite the volume potential, Wu emphasized however that China still lags behind in key NEV technologies and companies with economies of scale. For example, the use of air conditioning or heating shortens EV range on average by about 20-40 percent, while core components such as electric motor control especially IGBT still depend on imports. The power battery industry has scale but lack quality consistency.

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